Recent Copper Price Trend Analysis (As of June 9, 2026)

I. Current Market Overview: High-level Wide Volatility, Strong External Market vs Weak Domestic Market

1. Latest Prices (Closing on June 9)

• LME 3-month Copper: USD 13,693.5 per ton, up USD 103 on the day. It has traded at high levels year-to-date, hitting a yearly peak of USD 14,153 in May followed by a mild correction, fluctuating within the range of USD 13,400–14,000.

• Shanghai Copper Main Contract CU2607: CNY 104,420 per ton, up CNY 580 intraday with an intraday swing of nearly CNY 1,000. Its core trading range stands at CNY 102,000–108,000 per ton.

• Domestic Grade 1 Spot Copper: Changjiang Spot at CNY 104,250 (down CNY 30), Guangdong Spot at CNY 104,260 (up CNY 30). Spot trading is thin with north-south divergence; downstream buyers only purchase for rigid demand.

2. Short-term Trend Summary (Late May – Mid-June)

1. After surging to the yearly high in mid-May, copper prices corrected amid expectations of prolonged high US Federal Reserve interest rates.

2. June has witnessed fierce bull-bear contention, featuring volatile sideways movement with frequent sharp ups and downs, with single-day price swings ranging from CNY 500 to 1,000.

3. Core pattern: Tight supply underpins price floors, while macroeconomic headwinds and sluggish traditional demand cap rallies. No unilateral sharp rallies or slumps are seen, with repeated volatile consolidation at high levels.

II. Bullish Factors Supporting Copper Prices (Prevent Severe Downside Corrections)

1. Persistent Global Copper Mine Shortage (Top Fundamental Support)Chile’s copper mine output plunged 13.8% year-on-year in April; production resumptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Kamoa mines keep getting delayed.Domestic copper concentrate TC/RC processing fees have fallen below USD -110 per dry metric ton, a deeply negative historical level. Smelters compete aggressively for ores, and rigid raw material costs set a firm floor for copper prices.Sulfuric acid shortages and maintenance at overseas smelters limit refined copper supply growth.

2. Regional Inventory TightnessLME copper inventories have dropped to a two-month low, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories keep drawing down. To prepare for the June 30 US copper tariff review, the US has ramped up import stockpiling, continuously draining circulating copper supply worldwide and tightening overseas spot liquidity.

3. Rigid New-Energy Demand Offsets Traditional Off-season WeaknessReal estate and home appliance demand softens in the off-season, yet copper consumption from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, AI data centers and ultra-high voltage power grids grows rapidly, creating sustained long-term demand increments. Institutions project a global copper market deficit for 2026.

4. Institutions Hold Bullish Long-term OutlooksGoldman Sachs raised its year-end LME copper target price to USD 13,735; Citi forecasts a short-term target of USD 14,500 and a 12-month target of USD 15,000, expecting a sideways uptrend in the second half of the year.

III. Bearish Factors Capping Upward Momentum (Limiting Sharp Short-term Rallies)

1. Hawkish US Monetary Policy and Strong US Dollar Weigh on Copper ValuationsBetter-than-expected US employment data pushed back market rate cut expectations, with the probability of further interest rate hikes rising to 42% for the year. The US Dollar Index remains elevated, pressuring dollar-denominated copper prices and triggering the latest round of corrections.

2. Domestic Traditional Consumption Off-season Depresses Spot DemandHigh temperatures combined with a sluggish real estate sector make cable, hardware and home appliance manufacturers cautious about procurement. China’s imports of unwrought copper fell 7% year-on-year in the first five months, import premiums stayed weak, and spot markets lack active restocking sentiment.

3. Two Key Uncertain Events in June Disturb Capital Sentiment

• June 18 Federal Reserve Policy Meeting: Hawkish signals will weigh on short-term copper prices, while dovish rate-cut hints will fuel rebounds.

• June 30 US Commerce Department Section 232 Copper Tariff Report: New tariff hikes would lift overseas copper prices in the short run; underwhelming tariff measures would trigger profit-taking by stockpiling funds and price corrections.

4. Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and High Oil Prices Stoke Inflation FearsRecurring conflicts push up crude oil prices, intensifying global inflation concerns and dampening bullish sentiment across commodities.

IV. Market Forecast by Time Horizon

1. Short-term (Mid-to-Late June, 1–2 Weeks): Persistent Wide High-level Volatility

Reference trading ranges:Shanghai Copper: CNY 102,000–108,000/ton; LME Copper: USD 13,400–14,000/tonMarket logic: Tight mine supply prevents deep price slumps, yet off-season domestic demand and wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the Fed policy meeting cap upward gains. News triggers rapid spikes or plunges, amplifying price volatility.Key indicators to track: June 18 Fed meeting outcome, LME inventory changes, domestic spot trading volumes, US tariff updates.

2. Medium-term (July–September, Second Half of 2026): Sideways Bias to Upside with Higher Price Centers

1. If the Fed signals rate cuts in Q3, a weaker US Dollar will drive valuation recovery for copper.

2. Demand will pick up in Q3 as photovoltaic and new energy vehicle manufacturers ramp up production schedules.

3. The copper supply gap cannot be filled in the short term; low inventory conditions will fuel periodic price surges.

4. Institutions broadly expect copper price centers to shift higher in H2, with potential to break the May yearly high.

3. Long-term (Full-year Perspective): Unchanged Supply-Demand Deficit, Bullish Supercycle

Long-term underinvestment in copper mines and continuous rising copper demand from new energy and digital economy sectors will keep copper prices elevated throughout the year; severe deep corrections are unlikely.

V. Practical Guidance for Copper Material Traders & Processors

1. Short-term Stockpiling: Avoid large-scale fixed-price orders amid volatility; purchase only rigid demand batches and restock modestly on price dips.

2. Risk Hedging: Daily price swings near CNY 1,000 create risks for large inventory holdings at high price bands; guard against sudden price plunges triggered by Fed policy or tariff news.

3. Structural Opportunities: Copper material orders for new energy, photovoltaics and energy storage remain resilient, while demand for real estate-related cables and copper busbars stays weak.

4. Critical Technical Levels: CNY 102,000 acts as strong support for Shanghai copper, and CNY 108,000 is key near-term resistance. Breakouts above or breakdowns below these thresholds will trigger unilateral trending moves.

Risk Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on current public market data only and does not constitute investment or purchasing advice. Commodity prices are subject to extreme volatility driven by macro policies, geopolitics and capital flows. All purchasing and inventory decisions should be made prudently based on your own inventory backlogs and order books.